Hainan Classic Preview and Picks

The Cannon is set to fire at the Hainan classic

The inaugural edition of the Hainan Classic gets underway this week from the well renowned Blackstone Course at Mission Hills, a venue known for hosting the World Cup of Golf. The prize fund is similar to last weeks with $2.5m US up for grabs and a big slice of the 3500 Race to Dubai points on offer. The Hainan Classic will close the third of the five global swings on the DP World Tour.

At the China Open we saw a strongish lineup and similar test and the field and golf course will be similar again here. It's a ball strikers second shot track with elevation changes and undulations in a parkland setting. Premium will be on hitting greens and precise approach play. 

Hainan Classic market

The Hainan Classic market is lead by Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at a top price of 14/1. Haotong Li got a full place for us last week and he joins Rasmus atop the market also at 14s best price. We also had Wenyi Ding (16/1) in the China Open and he lead at one stage down the stretch after a fast start of -6 thru 10 holes or so. Recent winners like Eugenio Chacarra (16/1) load the front of the Hainan Classic market. Keita Najajima had an off week last week but he still holds his price at 18/1.

Nic's top tips for the Hainan Classic

Jacob Scov Olesen 40/1 (1/5th 6) was on the radar in last week's China Open. He finished out 2024 with a top 10 in Mauritius and is now showing excellent progressive form with a t13 in Kenya followed by a t7 in Joburg and he finshed t8 for us last week at a big price for anyone that backed him top 10. The 25-year-old hit four rounds of 65 in those three events. Olesen is 11th in stroke average on the DP World Tour and makes par breakers in abundance.

Tapio Pulkannen 66/1 (1/5th 6) is 32nd in birdies this season and he opened the Volvo China Open with a course record of 9-under par, three shots ahead of the next best. He finished in a tie for seventh meaning his price is still very juicy for the Hainan Classic. The Cannon is known for going low and he regained his DP World Tour card this season, already recording four top 25 finishes. His progressive form reads t36 - t13 -7. Across the 2021-23 seasons, Pulkannen's driving distance ranking averaged in the top 25 and so far in 2025 he is ranking 20th in putts per round - a good concoction for success....

Join me on Nicspicks Patreon platform to access all seven picks for this week's Hainan Classic, and my six fancies, insights and angles for the Zurich Classic team event.
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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

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What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

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