FedEx St. Jude Classic - Shot Maker's Paradise

Shane Lowry is one of the best shot makers on tour

We are down to the last 70 of the FedEx Cup with the top 50 progressing onto next week. Points are quadrupled for the first two Playoffs events so numbers 51-70 will want to get a move on. Again it's not a great looking market - similar to the Signature Events and in truth the new formats of all the tours are making it very hard to me to find good value bets. 

The usual trio of Sheffler, Schauffele and Rory McIlroy lead the market but TPC Southwind is a track where the big boys often struggle and there does look to be some value further down the market.

Course and Player Profiling

TPC Southwind is a classic treelined parkland track that usually plays firm and is known as a shot maker's paradise where a fine short-game imagination is needed. The Target player profile is accurate and smart with club selection off the tee and top scrambling skills are required as greens are small, some with run offs. This also makes Iron play prominent. TPC Southwind has a thick tree line with narrow fairways and plays to a par 70 at around 7,250 yards in length. There's plenty of water trouble and an island green par 3. Greens are Bermuda and they are set to run around 12-12.5 on the stimp this week. The Fibre is also Bermuda set at 3 inches deep.

 Premiums and (key metrics weightings

• Driving accuracy
• Irons proximity 
• Scrambling
• Wind play 
• Mentality 
• Holing Out 
• Par 4 performance
• Bogey avoidance

Nic's Picks for the FedEx St. Jude Classic

Shane Lowry 50 to 1 stands out when it comes to shot making. After a fine run of form he misses the cut at the wyndham championship but he shot 70-68 which means I'll overlook that and the long weekend off might be in his favour. I know he loves TPC Southwind as was 6th here a few years back. He actually had a chance to win though coming down the last two holes. Lowry is 16th in driving accuracy and his irons are much improved this year ranking 9th in strokes gained approach. He's in his best form of the season right now with recent top 6 finishes in the Open and the PGA Championship.

Billy Horschel 40 to 1 is another who looks overpriced. horschel has done it all before winning the FedEx Cup and back to back Playoff events. He has the course form and current form concoction here at TPC Southwind and his last two tournies have resulted in t2 at the Open and a top 7 at Wyndham where he opened with a 62. Horschel is an 8 time PGA tour winner who has won this year and he's actually one of the guys who refers to TPC Southwind as a shot makers course......

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