3M Open Betting Preview 2024 - Big Hitters to Shine
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| Could Thriston Lawrence be set for a big performance on US soil? |
The last of the majors is over and it was Xander Schauffle at a pretty short price who won his 2nd major of the season at Royal Troon. There were some pretty big-priced guys in behind him on the leaderboard though and one of those makes the staking plan here at the 3M Open for what I think will be the sixth or seventh edition at the low-scoring TPC Twin Cities. Players like Bryson, Champ, Wolff, Wyndham Clark and Tony Finau have strong records here and we'll be following this theme again.
Indeed it's big Tony who leads the market at 11/1 and he has to be taken on at that price. Sam Burns is tempting at 18s as it's the perfect course for him while Sahith Theegala is fast becoming a player not to back at shorter prices due to his volatility in results.
TPC Twin Cities Course and Player Profiling
TPC Twin Cities plays to a Par 71, around 7,468 yards. It’s one for the bombers and birdie makers with room off the tee and plenty of scoring opportunities, usually in softer conditions. If the wind blows it can cause some big numbers on what is a risk-reward water ridden track. Low scoring required will be required here with the average winning total pushing -20. The course features generous landing areas and scorable par 5s. It has three potentially drivable par 4s and a risk reward par 5 18th over water for a dramatic finish. Greens are Bentgrass and the rough around them is deep. It's a track you can't shortside yourself on with sticky rough so emphasis is very much on approach shots.
Premium and key metrics
- Driving distance/Total driving
- Long Irons
- Strokes gained approach
- Holing out
- Par breakers
Nic's Picks for the 3M Open (all picks available on mailing list)
Keith Mitchell 33/1 has been on my radar for a fair few weeks now and unsurprisingly due to his course fit he's finished fifth in his last two appearances here. Mitchell is third in ball striking, 6th in strokes gained approach and 4th in strokes gained off the tee. He didn't play well the last two weeks but prior to that he had two top 20s and a top 10 so we can say he's simmering form wise.
Thriston Lawrence 80/1 is the Open championship contender I want onside here. Lawrence was recently second in the European Open before finishing 4th in the Opening championship. He's a very underrated player (outside of SA where he's one of the top guns now) and as such will often be overpriced in events like this. He had control of the big stick last week and that works at TPC Twin Cities. The South African Player bested a decent enough field to win the BMW International Open in 2023 and Thriston ranks 9/10 for driving distance in my course fit model......
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