Few thoughts and possible plays for Mallorca and the Zozo Champs

Mornings chaps, bit of a quiet one this week with two shall we say so-so main golf events for betting purposes. It's been a while since I stayed mostly in the higher echelons of the market in a full field event but in Mallorca I do have some guys I think may contend around the 33s mark. Don't be too quick to poo poo prices in the top tier, it's all relative to field strength. The main problem here could be the wind which is what I would be worried about when backing somewhat shorter prices.

Mallorca

Anyway I've nailed down a handful of guys who are scoring high on my progressive form model (yes I have an actual model for my sins) and these guys theoretically should be there or thereabouts. Course info is a little scarce but I've got a mix of playing styles: Wilco Nienaber 33s, Alex Bjork 28s, Romain Langasque 40s, JB Hansen 33s have all been playing well for a few weeks now. Pablo Larrazabal has too but at 28/33s I don't mind passing there. It's Just Nino Bertasio at around 100s is a longshot I want onside and I'm going to have a few shillings on my man Gavin Green too who is fiiiiinally finding a bit of form. Another FRLdar perhaps?

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The Zozo championship is at Accordia Narashino which I call Asia's Firestone. It was soft and mild here in 2019 and it was all about tee to green and high approach proximity to the hole - Hideki style. Keegan Bradley - a poor man's Hideki even put in a low one. I never understood this phrase but to make a long story boring....Will Zalatoris 18s, Joaquin Niemann 20s, and Emilliano Grillo 40s all fit the profile in a half field event and all have been simmering of late. Grillo closed with a 61 last week.

Of the outsiders for the sub markets and a sprinkle ew on the outright, on the radar are Sung Kang 125s, Adam Long 150s, and Matt Jones 80s. Long has that exact Hideki/Keegan style straight and high tee to green flight we are looking for here and he can chuck in the odd low one. Sung Kang is forever underrated by the market. We have been on him the last few weeks and I made him around half his OP. He was FRL 2 weeks ago at Shriners with a 61 and threw in a 64 last week for good measure. FRLs on Long and Kang too 

All the best as we come towards the end of a great season

Bryan
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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