Pebble Beach Pro am 2021 golf tips - More like no am

Pebble Beach Proam Tips
Dustin Johnson is expected to gain around 5 strokes re course fit at the Pebble Beach Pro Am
The Pebble beach pro am gets underway this year but with a twist. There will be no amateur players and two courses will be used in the rotation rather than 3. This actually sets the event up well as we'll see tougher pin positions than the norm

The screenshot directly beneath shows Dustin Johnson's course fit profile and the key metric premiums and weightings for the Pebble Beach course using my course fit model. The target player profile here as you can see is someone strong with the irons and who excels in the scrambling department. Wind and poa annua positive, and a little local knowledge goes a long way too.

(Scroll down for my top 25 vs the field rankings, ratings and fair odds estimations for pebble beach)

Dustin Johnson exp. SG:CF per round at Pebble Beach: ~1.3 - Click the model image to use the interactive version

PEBBLE BEACH PRO AM RANKINGS 

The odds chart below shows various rankings, ratings and fair odds estimations to 100% for the Pebble Beach Pro-am. The course fit numbers can be attained every week via my course fit profiling manual  (click link). The guys highlighted in green are the strongest value vs the bookmaker odds for the Pebble Beach Pro-am Tips.........

Nicspicks eBook - click image for details



Pebble Beach Pro Am odds chart and rankings


New: Join the  Nicspicks mailing list >> for my weekly members heads up email containing early access to selections and key info. Also, keep an eye out for my book on golf betting which is nearly ready for publication. Finally!

My player profiling and course fit manual above supplies all the data for the top players across the European and PGA Tours. It lists all the metrics and weightings for the various courses. Using this data you can plug the numbers into the interactive model above and get an accurate course fit rating for whatever player on whatever course 

 Dustin Johnson Player Profile from the manual
Winning golf betting tips? If you'd like to support me with a beer or 2 from your winnings, I'd love if you Buy me a beer here, through the image, or revolut me @Bryannich
Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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