HK Open - Round 1 Trade

Trade Of The Week - 1.5units Richard Green @ 50.0 (Betfair). Trade after round 1 if odds come in.

I was hoping for an early start for Green this week and I've got one. 8.00AM back nine start on the Hong Kong course in Fanling with Nicolas Colsaerts and a player not too familar to me from Thailand. Green is a notorious fast starter, especially when out early. Coming off the back of a fantastic World Cup with Brendan Jones where by all accounts Green was the prominent player in the Australian team. Australia opened in the four balls with a brilliant -11 round. The Hong Kong course plays only 6,700 yards long, is tree lined and sets up with doglegs and some elevated greens, all factors which could play into Green's hands.

Update (Result): green struggled in the wind on day 1 and never got into contention. Loss: -1.5units

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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Golf Betting Tips Strategy

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