GOLF BETTING: Farmers Insurance Open Picks

Stephen Ames For The Win 4th stop on the PGA tour 2010 this week in the form of the Farmers Insurance Open (previously called the Buick Invitational) at Torrey Pines. Golf betting tips so far this year have turned out to be useless but only a couple of weeks in and with little competitive form, that's not exactly a major shock. The golf betting season starts here and there are plenty of value bets on offer looking down the Farmers Insurance Open price list. Home boy Phil Mickelson is obviously installed as favourite and Allenby second in behind him and it's a course right up Allenby's street. I won't be touching either of those 2 though at the short betting prices. The golf tournament will be played over the 2 courses at Torrey pines, with 3 rounds being played on the monster that is the south course. It's over 7,600 yards long with pretty tight fairways and deep rough so the first focus of Farmers Insurance golf picks will be keeping the ball in play off the tee whilst getting it out there at the same time. Total driving is the premium here......... stay tuned for expert Farmers Insurance Open Value golf picks/Tips


Farmers Insurance Open Value Picks:

-1pt E/W Stephen Ames @ 60/1 (sporting bet) Ames regained some form towards the back end of last season and continued on where he left off 2 weeks ago in Hawaii. He regularly features on the leaderboards in majors therefore he enjoys tough challenges like this 1. Way overpriced at 60/1.

-1pts E/W Charles Howell @ 33/1 (general) Great record here on a course he knows very well. In good form this early season.

-2pts John Senden top 10 finish @ 6/1 (Stan James) Played well last week at the Bob Hope and his ability with the driver and his GIR% are what catches the eye as those are key stats around this track (VOID - Late withdrawal)

-1.25pts Matt Jones top 20 finish @ 3/1(paddypower) 5th and another top 20 in his last 2 starts here and off the back of another top 20 last week at the Bob Hope

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Bryan Nicholson is the pioneer of the progressive form and course fit ratings for golf betting, with the associated progressive form model and course fit profiling model. Bryan is the author of the annual course fit profiling manual and #1 golf betting book Angles & Edges.

What is expected Strokes Gained Course Fit ?

Bryan pioneered the concept of Expected Strokes Gained Course Fit (xSGF) in golf betting. xSGF can be predicted using my model below. For prospective golf betting tips it projects ahead of time how many shots a player is expected to pick up per round on average on a particular golf course. It's weighed against a neutral golf course of the same rating.

Golf Betting Tips Model

Input up to date player and course data (from the upcoming course fit manual 2024) into this interactive golf betting model. My course fit profiling model for golf betting tips uses highly evolved golf nuance and betting intuition, precise parameters and inputs based on Bayesian analysis, plus years of empirical evidence through observing, betting and documenting golf and stats.

What is Progressive Form in Golf Betting?

Progressive form in golf betting differs from current form in that players are showing a trend in the right direction in their recent scoring. Trending form has a high predictive value in golf betting and can also catch players under the radar at an inflated price vs their true betting odds.

Interactive Progressive Form Golf Betting Model



To check the latest player finishing positions for golf betting tips see the official world golf rankings and search/click a golfer. Input these numbers into the interactive golf model above, following the guide.

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